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09/03/2010 - Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ed Carpenter earned his first pole in the IZOD IndyCar Series after edging points leader Will Power in Friday's qualifying for the Kentucky Indy 300 at Kentucky Speedway.
Carpenter, making just his third IndyCar start in the No.20 car for Panther/Vision Racing this season, posted a two-lap average of 217.933 m.p.h. around the 1.5-mile oval for his first career pole in his 102nd start. He also became the 10th different pole sitter in 11 races at Kentucky.
"The way I kind of look at it, I'm trying to keep my career going during every minute I'm in the car," Carpenter said. "I have to do the best that I can and get the most out of it. I'm just having a lot of fun right now. The Panther team is doing a great job, in addition with the Vision Racing part of it. It's just a lot of fun."
Last year, Carpenter finished a career-best second at Kentucky. Ryan Briscoe from Team Penske nipped Carpenter at the finish line by only 0.0162 seconds, making it the seventh closest finish in series' history at the time.
Power captured the outside pole with a lap of 217.829 m.p.h. The Penske driver's two-lap total time was just 0.0234 seconds behind Carpenter. Last week at Chicagoland Speedway, Power finished a season-worst 16th after experiencing a fueling issue during a late-race pit stop and then ran out of gas while contending for the lead in the closing laps.
Carpenter's teammate, Dan Wheldon, will share the second row with Scott Dixon from Chip Ganassi Racing.
Hideki Mutoh qualified fifth, followed by Bertrand Baguette, and Mario Moraes.
Penske teammates Helio Castroneves and Briscoe, who won the pole at Chicagoland, took the eighth and ninth starting positions, respectively.
Tomas Scheckter, driving an entry for Conquest Racing, completed the top-10.
Dario Franchitti, who led the way in practice earlier in the day, qualified a disappointing 11th. The Ganassi driver and defending series champion trails Power by 23 points with three races to go.
All four drivers from Andretti Autosport struggled in qualifying. Marco Andretti qualified 15th, while Danica Patrick placed 17th. Tony Kanaan nearly crashed during his qualifying effort and wound up 26th. Ryan Hunter-Reay will start last in the 27-car field after he spun around and backed into the wall during his run.
Saturday's 300-mile race from Kentucky will start around 8:45 p.m. (et).
<< Red Bulls hope to end RSL's home streak
Sandy, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Red Bull New York travels to take on Real Salt
Lake at Rio Tinto Stadium on Saturday night in Major League Soccer action.
Both teams are in second place in their respective conference tables, with RSL
holding
<< Fresno State hosts Cincinnati in season opener
When Fresno State visited Cincinnati last season, the Bulldogs outgained the Bearcats, controlled the ball for nearly 44 minutes and still ended up on the losing side of a 28-20 game that still rankles coach Pat Hill.While Fresno State controlled th
<< Hurricane Earl forces Boston-Chicago postponement
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Friday's contest between the Chicago White Sox
and Boston Red Sox was rained out.
The threat of Hurricane Earl heading toward Boston forced officials to make
the early postponement and reschedule the con
<< D.C. United, Columbus clash again in league play
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United interim coach Ben Olsen called
Wednesday's loss to the Columbus Crew in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals "cruel,"
but now the struggling squad will try to bounce back in Major League Soccer on
Saturda
Eagles trade for OL Wells, cut 10; Abiamiri to PUP >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles have traded for
Arizona Cardinals offensive lineman Reggie Wells, the team announced Friday.
The 29-year-old Wells, who was acquired in exchange for an undisclosed 2011
draft
L.A. wants better effort against Chicago >>
Bridgeview, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Landon Donovan and manager Bruce Arena both
agreed after last week's loss to the Kansas City Wizards that the Los Angeles
Galaxy were "outcompeted."
Davy Arnaud had a goal and an assist to lead K.C. to a 2
SEC, Nashville agree to multi-year deal to host hoops tournament >>
Birmingham, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southeastern Conference and the
Nashville Sports Council agreed to play the SEC men's basketball tournament at
Bridgestone Arena in 2015, 2016 and 2019.
The event will now be held at the arena
Rapids not taking Chivas for granted >>
Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rapids will continue their
playoff push on Saturday when they host Western Conference cellar-dwellars,
Chivas USA at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
Colorado enters the weekend in fifth p
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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