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06/14/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball teams continue to look for help north of the border, and that's just fine with players like Kellin Deglan.
The Langley, British Columbia native was the first Canadian off the board in the 2010 MLB draft when the Texas Rangers selected the six-foot-two, 200-pound catcher with the 22nd overall pick.
Deglan was the second catcher chosen behind Yasmani Grandal, who went 12th to the St. Louis Cardinals, after the Washington Nationals declared first overall pick Bryce Harper would become a full-time outfielder.
A product of the Langley Blaze of the British Columbia Premier Baseball League, Deglan immediately came to terms with Texas on a signing bonus for an estimated $1 million.
Entering the Rangers farm system straight from high school apparently did not deter Texas from signing the 18-year-old. Deglan has competed against equivalent talent to that of the minor leagues and has plenty of international experience, as he is also a member of the Canadian Junior National team.
Based on where they selected him, it is clear the Rangers organization envisions Deglan as a player that can blossom into a quality major league backstop. And for Texas it's a reasonable gamble, given its recent trouble in molding young catchers into everyday starters in the big leagues, such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden.
With the selection, Deglan became the second-highest Canadian-born position player to be drafted by a major league team. Brett Lawrie was selected 16th overall by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2008 draft and is currently manning second base for the Huntsville Stars, the Brewers double-A affiliate. Like Deglan, Lawrie also hails from Langley, BC.
CANADIAN ROUNDUP
James Paxton, the top Canadian selected in the 2009 MLB draft, went in the fourth round, 132nd overall to the Seattle Mariners. The Toronto Blue Jays chose the lefty with the 37th overall pick last year, but the two parties were unable to come terms on a contract. Paxton's stock may have fallen, but he is still regarded as a top prospect.
A similar tale to Paxton's unfolded for LHP Jake Eliopoulos when his name got called on draft day. A year ago, Eliopoulos was selected with the 68th overall pick by the Blue Jays; however, he was also unable to reach terms on a deal. His stock plummeted this year, falling all the way to the 15th round, before being scooped up by the Los Angeles Dodgers with the 472nd overall pick.
The other Canadian players who heard their name called in the first 20 rounds of the 2010 first-year player draft were INF Chris Bisson, fourth round to the San Diego Padres; RHP Joel Pierce, seventh round to the Brewers; LHP Evan Grills, 10th round to the Houston Astros; LHP Evan Rutckyj, 16th round to the New York Yankees and Rowan Wick, who was taken in the 18th round by the Brewers.
In total, there were 31 Canadians selected, plus the No. 2 overall pick Jameson Taillon, who is American-born but has dual-citizenship, as both his parents are from Ontario.
ANTHOPOLOUS' FIRST CRACK AT THE DRAFT
The Toronto Blue Jays and first-year general manager Alex Anthopolous certainly set a premium on pitching, as they selected four arms within the first 43 picks in the draft. Starting with the 11th overall pick, the Blue Jays took Deck McGuire, a six-foot-six righthander from Georgia Tech who projects to be as sure a thing as there is from this year's class at making the big leagues. The 20-year-old had a 9-4 record to go along with a 2.96 ERA over 16 starts in the NCAA for Georgia Tech.
The Jays followed that up by selecting three more pitchers in the supplementary first round as compensation picks. Toronto gained the compensation picks by failing to sign Paxton last year and for losing players Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas to free agency. They in turn selected righthanders Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard and Asher Wojciechowski with the 34th, 38th and 41st picks respectively to round out the first day of the draft.
In combining talent and sentimental value, no selection in the draft may have been bigger for the Jays than the 113th pick they used on Marcus Knecht. The homegrown product from North York, ON, put up impressive numbers this past year while playing for Connors State College. Knecht batted .472, with 16 home runs and 57 RBI during his first year with the junior college after transferring from Oklahoma State.
The outfielder was the first of seven Canadian players chosen by the Blue Jays, the most of any other club, and the third position player behind third baseman Kellen Sweeney (69th overall and brother of current big leaguer Ryan Sweeney of Oakland) and high school shortstop Christopher Hawkins, who Toronto grabbed with the 93rd pick.
Knecht was previously drafted in '08 by the Brewers in the 23rd round. Rounding out the rest of the Canadian players selected by the Blue Jays: OF Dalton Pompey (16th round), LHP Jay Johnson (26th), OF Philip Diedrick (45th), RHP Connor Smith (46th), C Nick Studer (48th) and C Kelly Norris-Jones who was selected in the 50th and final round.
<< Kerr moves to No. 4 in world rankings
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cristie Kerr wrapped up a victory Monday
in the weather-delayed State Farm Classic and moved up one spot to No. 4 in
the world rankings for women's golf.
Jiyai Shin, Ai Miyazato and Suzann Petters
<< Westwood solidifies No. 3 world ranking
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lee Westwood solidified his No. 3 world
ranking with a playoff victory at the St. Jude Classic on Sunday, his first
win on the PGA Tour in 12 years.
Westwood pulled .65 average points closer to N
<< Vikings DE Edwards signs tender
Eden Prairie, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Minnesota Vikings restricted free agent
defensive end Ray Edwards signed his one-year tender offer on Monday.
The 25-year-old will be entering his fifth NFL season after the Vikings
selected him
<< United's Pontius claims MLS Player of Week
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United attacker Chris Pontius was voted
Major League Soccer's Player of the Week for Week 12 of the 2010 MLS season.
Pontius was originally credited with a hat trick in his team's 3-2 win at
Seattl
Injuries take center stage as Ivory Coast meets Portugal >>
Port Elizabeth, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Following the draw for the
World Cup in December, Tuesday's Group G opener between the Ivory Coast and
Portugal at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium was one of the more anticipated matches
of the
Titans lose CB Hood to ACL tear >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tennessee Titans have reportedly lost
Rod Hood for the season after the veteran cornerback tore his ACL.
The Tennessean is reporting Hood suffered the tear during non-OTA work on
Friday. The eigh
Opposites face off as Brazil takes on N. Korea >>
Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brazil and North Korea are polar
opposites in every possible way when it comes to soccer.
Brazil is the most decorated nation on the planet with five World Cup titles
and a sixth potentially
Browns LB Jackson signs tender >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Browns veteran linebacker D'Qwell
Jackson signed his one-year tender offer on Monday.
According to The Plain Dealer, Jackson agreed to a second-round tender worth
$1.759 million.
The 26-year
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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2007 Academy Award Betting : Oscars odds
The 79th Annual Academy Awards odds , which will air February 25th, is sparking an interest throughout the nation with the announcement of its nominees. As the public chooses their favorites, sportsbooks are creating odds for one of the biggest entertainment betting nights of the year.
Whether its at a “Oscar Party” or in an on line sportsbook, entertainment gambling on award shows represent a huge increase in betting. As the public speculation mounts, MySportsbook.com, the largest and most respected sportsbook on the web, posted odds on who is going home with a “Golden Best Friend.”
“ We see a majority of our entertainment wagers come from the Academy Awards,” said MySportsbook.com spokesperson, Tim Dalton. “This is a competition that applies to everyone. These are the people that entertain us on a daily basis and you want to see them win.”
MySportsbook.com posted the following odds for Academy Awards:
Odds to win the Achievement in Directing:
Alejandro González Iñárritu "Babel": 8/1
Martin Scorsese "The Departed": 2/17
Clint Eastwood "Letters From Iwo Jima: 4/1
Stephen Frears "The Queen": 12/1
Paul Greengrass "United 93": 15/1
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Leonardo DiCaprio in "Blood Diamond": 11/1
Ryan Gosling in "Half Nelson": 20/1
Peter O’Toole in "Venus": 16/5
Will Smith in "The Pursuit of Happyness": 16/1
Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland": 1/11
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Penélope Cruz in "Volver": 18/1
Judi Dench in "Notes on a Scandal": 15/1
Helen Mirren in "The Queen": 1/50
Meryl Streep in "The Devil Wears Prada": 10/1
Kate Winslet in "Little Children": 20/1
Best Animated Feature Film:
"Cars": 1/3
"Happy Feet": 2/1
"Monster House": 20/1
Best Foreign-Language Film of the Year:
"Water" – Canada: 22/1
"The Lives of Others" – Germany: 7/2
"After the Wedding" - Denmark: 24/1
"Days of Glory (Indigenes)" – Algeria: 23/1
"Pan's Labyrinth" - Mexico: 1/10
Odds to win the Best Live-Action Short Film:
"Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)": 6/5
"Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)": 7/2
"Helmer & Son": 5/2
"The Saviour": 6/1
"West Bank Story": 7/2
Odds to win the Best Original Screenplay:
"Babel": 7/4
"Letters From Iwo Jima": 3/1
"Little Miss Sunshine": 21/20
"Pan's Labyrinth": 11/4
"The Queen": 5/4
Best Motion Picture of the Year:
"Babel": 11/4
"The Departed": 1/2
"Letters from Iwo Jima": 15/2
"Little Miss Sunshine": 17/10
"The Queen": 20/1
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Alan Arkin in "Little Miss Sunshine": 11/10
Jackie Earle Haley in "Little Children": 10/1
Djimon Hounsou in "Blood Diamond": 9/1
Eddie Murphy in "Dreamgirls": 2/5
Mark Wahlberg in "The Departed": 5/1
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Adriana Barraza in "Babel": 14/1
Cate Blanchett in "Notes on a Scandal": 11/1
Abigail Breslin in "Little Miss Sunshine": 2/1
Jennifer Hudson in "Dreamgirls": 1/8
Rinko Kikuchi in "Babel": 11/1
Film To Win Most Oscars:
Dreamgirls: 2/3
Pans Labyrinth: 6/5
The Departed: 6/1
The Queen: 11/1
Babel: 15/1
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: 11/1
Little Miss Sunshine: 15/1
Additional sports and entertainment odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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