Leading fillies do battle in Alabama

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/18/2010 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Devil May Care and Blind Luck top a field of six for Saturday's $500,000 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga for three- year-old fillies.

The top two fillies are meeting for the first time since last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Blind Luck was third and Devil May Care finished 11th behind champion She Be Wild.

Both fillies are ranked in the NTRA Thoroughbred Poll. Blind Luck is seventh with Devil May Care just below in eighth.

Devil May Care, with jockey John Velazquez, will start from post two and Blind Luck will be ridden by Joel Rosario from the four post.

Devil May Care is coming off a dominating victory in the Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga. Trained by Todd Pletcher the filly won by four- lengths in the 1 1/8-mile stakes.

"We're looking forward to the matchup," Pletcher said. "It's not a two- horse race, but you are putting the two most accomplished fillies on the racetrack and ultimately that's what everyone wants to see - the two best meeting each other. There's no better barometer than a head-to-head matchup.

"I have a tremendous amount of respect for Blind Luck. She's got that extra something special you like to see in a racehorse - that desire to win. She keeps finding a way to get there."

Owned by Glencrest Farm, Devil May Care won the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park after her 10th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. She began the year with a fifth in the Silverbulletday Stakes, but followed by winning the Bonnie Miss Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

"I do feel she is getting more professional and she's learning to polish her races off a little bit," Pletcher noted. "She's had that tendency to make the lead and wait. That's why you have to be careful in a situation like (the Alabama) where you have a horse like Blind Luck that's relentless and keeps coming. You can't make mistakes; you can't get there and idle and let them catch you by surprise."

Devil May Care has earned $699,000 in eight career starts with five wins.

Blind Luck, trained by co-owner Jerry Hollendorfer, will be making her initial start at historic Saratoga.

With Rosario aboard, Blind Luck posted a nose victory in the Delaware Oaks last month. In June she was second to Switch in the Hollywood Oaks which came after her furious rally to win the Kentucky Oaks.

Blind Luck won the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park in April as the 1-2 favorite. In February the filly won the Las Virgenes at Santa Anita as the 1-5 favorite, but failed at 1-2 to Crisp in the Santa Anita Oaks in March when she finished third.

The three-year-old has won eight of 12 career starts for more than $1.5 million.

Here is the full field for the Alabama in post position order: Acting Happy, Jose Lezcano; Devil May Care, John Velazquez; Tizahit, Edgar Prado; Blind Luck, Joel Rosario; Connie and Michael, Rajiv Maragh and Havre de Grace, Jeremy Rose.

The Alabama has a scheduled post-time of 5:50 p.m. (et).

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.