Seattle, New England set to meet at Gillette Stadium

Soccer Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seattle Sounders FC travel to New England to take on the Revolution, hoping to extend their current unbeaten run in Major League Soccer play to nine games.

Seattle (9-8-5) have rebounded nicely from an early season funk thanks in large part to the play of striker Fredy Montero, who has 10 goals and nine assists this season.

Both clubs are coming off mid-week fixtures outside of league play, with Seattle topping Chivas USA 3-1 in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals, and New England losing to Morelia in the SuperLiga finals, both on Wednesday night.

Seattle's triumph sets up a showdown with the Columbus Crew on Oct. 11 for the U.S. Open Cup title.

"Obviously we're happy about playing for the title," Sounders and former Crew coach Sigi Schmid told The Seattle Times. "It's sort of ironic - it's the team I'm coaching now against the team I used to coach. Obviously I know their whole coaching staff, I know a lot of the players there, so it's going to be emotional that way. But we're very happy that we're hosting the game, and we're very excited. We want to sell out Qwest and we want to be able to hoist the trophy in front of all of those people."

The Revs (6-12-3) have lost three straight in league play and are third-from- the-bottom in the Eastern table, meaning their chances of advancing to the playoffs are getting very slim. The loss to Morelia on Wednesday just added to the misery of the down season.

"I think we started really slow when we came out and we didn't put enough pressure on the ball and they move really well," New England midfielder Shalrie Joseph said after the Morelia loss. "We were giving them way too much space at times. They were cutting us off and in the second half, we tried to limit their space, limit their chances. And that would help us if we do that a little bit more in the first half. I think we just need to create more chances and just put them more on the backs of their heels."

The Revs will be without defender Corey Gibbs on Saturday because of a red card he earned in his team's last league fixture vs. Philadelphia, while forward Taylor Twellman continues to be out with a concussion. Midfielder Jason Griffiths and forward Edgaras Jankauskas are doubtful, forward Zak Boggs and Nico Colaluca are questionable, and defender Kevin Alston and goalkeeper Matt Reis are probable, all with injuries.

Seattle will be without midfielders David Estrada, Brad Evans, and Peter Vagenas, defender Jhon Kennedy Hurtado and forward Pat Noonan, all with injuries.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.