Trade deadline features quantity over quality

Hockey Betting Lines

03/04/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One of the best days of my life involved a trip to Taco Bell many years ago.

During said trip my order was pretty standard: three soft supreme tacos to go. However, the employee completing my order was apparently a rookie, and he instead constructed my tacos in a hard shell. Informed of his mistake, he prepared to discard the food items and correct his gaffe.

Then, like a guardian angel his manager stopped him. He instructed his worker to put the three hard tacos in the bag along with my newly created soft-shell gems. I'll never forget his words, which came out of his mouth like a hymn.

"He gets to eat your mistake."

Score.

Is it sad that one of my greatest memories involves questionable meat and a teenager's folly? Probably, but there is a point to this.

Are six tacos better than three? Absolutely, but quantity doesn't always dictate success.

Take the recently-completed NHL trade deadline. A record 31 trades involving 55 players were completed, but not a single one created much buzz among cell phones and Twitter accounts. In fact, I would go as far as to say all the trades combined weren't as newsworthy as the handful of deals made before the Winter Olympic break.

While the likes of Ilya Kovalchuk, Dion Phaneuf, Jean-Sebastien Giguere and Olli Jokinen were all moved back in late January and early February, the day of March 3, which many NHL enthusiasts have had circled for months now, came and went with a whisper.

"This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper." T.S. Eliot said that.

Now granted, the NHL isn't going to fall to pieces because of a boring trade deadline, but it is one day that many fans who remain middle-of-the-road about the sport actually care enough to check in. With the event superceded by the success of the Gold Medal Game, names like Derek Morris, Wojtek Wolski and Ryan Whitney aren't going to rope in new followers.

There were names out there. Florida's Tomas Vokoun, Dan Hamhuis of Nashville and Ray Whitney of Carolina were all reportedly out there. Even heavy-hitters like Anaheim's Scott Niedermayer and Vincent Lecavalier of Tampa Bay found their way into rumor mills, credible or not.

But in the end, anyone who didn't get a chance to sneak away during the day to check the latest news didn't miss much come dinner time.

The Philadelphia Flyers were one of only a few clubs in a playoff position that didn't make any type of deal, and general manager Paul Holmgren said there just wasn't anything out there that made sense for his club.

"At the end, we explored some of the guys who were mentioned and then we started to focus on depth when it didn't look like anything was going to make sense for us," Holmgren said. "I didn't believe that anything that was made available to us, made us better and then we just started to look at adding just a small piece by a late-round draft pick or something like that, and we weren't able to do that."

Ultimately, the deadline will be evaluated by its impact on the season. Did contenders like Washington, Pittsburgh and Phoenix get better? Probably.

The Coyotes definitely subscribed to the quantity theory, making seven trades and adding five players to their NHL roster, including defensemen Morris and Mathieu Schneider, forwards Wolski, Lee Stempniak and center Petteri Nokelainen.

"We went into it hoping to add a few parts and add to our depth and I think we've addressed those needs today," said Coyotes head coach Dave Tippett, whose club hasn't reached the postseason since 2002 but stands fifth in Western Conference points (79) at the moment.

On the other side of things, bottom-feeders like Carolina, Toronto and Edmonton unloaded talent to better position themselves for the future.

But sex sells, and the lack of big names may have left a bitter taste for some. I don't know about you, but perhaps that sourness can be improved with a mix of beef, sour cream, lettuce and tomato.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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